AIFightMetrics

Deep data analysis, fight odds comparison, and AI-powered predictions across the entire UFC catalog.

772 Events
8,640 Fights
2,645 Fighters
8,640 Predictions

Next Event

● Upcoming
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
March 7, 2026  ·  Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
13 fights on card — View full event →

💰 Best Bets (sorted by Kelly %)

Pick vs Type AI % Fair Odds Implied % Odds Edge Kelly %
Diyar Nurgozhay Rafael Tobias ML 69% -223 37% +170 +32% 51.0%
Gaston Bolanos JeongYeong Lee ML 60% -150 30.8% +225 +29.2% 42.0%
Diyar Nurgozhay KO/TKO Rafael Tobias KO/TKO 47% +113 22.7% +340 +24.3% 31.0%
Gregory Rodrigues DEC Brunno Ferreira DEC 41% +144 15.4% +550 +25.6% 30.0%
Donte Johnson SUB Cody Brundage SUB 41% +144 16.4% +510 +24.6% 29.0%
Luke Fernandez DEC Rodolfo Bellato DEC 40% +150 16% +525 +24% 29.0%
Rob Font Raul Rosas Jr. ML 54% -117 35.7% +180 +18.3% 28.0%
Gaston Bolanos DEC JeongYeong Lee DEC 35% +186 16% +525 +19% 23.0%
Rob Font SUB Raul Rosas Jr. SUB 16% +525 3.8% +2500 +12.2% 13.0%
Michael Johnson Drew Dober ML 61% -156 55% -122 +6% 13.0%
Drew Dober DEC Michael Johnson DEC 25% +300 14.8% +575 +10.2% 12.0%
Brunno Ferreira DEC Gregory Rodrigues DEC 21% +376 10.5% +850 +10.5% 12.0%
Alberto Montes KO/TKO Ricky Turcios KO/TKO 22% +355 12.5% +700 +9.5% 11.0%
Michael Johnson DEC Drew Dober DEC 33% +203 25.6% +290 +7.4% 10.0%
Donte Johnson DEC Cody Brundage DEC 21% +376 13.3% +650 +7.7% 9.0%
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel SUB Cody Durden SUB 27% +270 20% +400 +7% 9.0%
Reinier de Ridder KO/TKO Caio Borralho KO/TKO 15% +567 8% +1150 +7% 8.0%
Max Holloway DEC Charles Oliveira DEC 32% +213 27.8% +260 +4.2% 6.0%
Gaston Bolanos KO/TKO JeongYeong Lee KO/TKO 21% +376 16% +525 +5% 6.0%
Reinier de Ridder Caio Borralho ML 35% +186 31.3% +220 +3.7% 5.0%
Caio Borralho DEC Reinier de Ridder DEC 47% +113 44.8% +123 +2.2% 4.0%
Rob Font KO/TKO Raul Rosas Jr. KO/TKO 18% +456 14.3% +600 +3.7% 4.0%
Diyar Nurgozhay DEC Rafael Tobias DEC 14% +614 10.5% +850 +3.5% 4.0%
Rodolfo Bellato SUB Luke Fernandez SUB 16% +525 12.5% +700 +3.5% 4.0%
Brunno Ferreira Gregory Rodrigues ML 40% +150 38% +163 +2% 3.0%
Cody Brundage Donte Johnson ML 20% +400 17.9% +460 +2.1% 3.0%
Cody Brundage DEC Donte Johnson DEC 10% +900 7.1% +1300 +2.9% 3.0%
Cody Durden KO/TKO Nyamjargal Tumendemberel KO/TKO 16% +525 13.3% +650 +2.7% 3.0%
Cody Durden DEC Nyamjargal Tumendemberel DEC 21% +376 18.9% +430 +2.1% 3.0%
Charles Oliveira DEC Max Holloway DEC 10% +900 8.3% +1100 +1.7% 2.0%
Brunno Ferreira SUB Gregory Rodrigues SUB 8% +1150 5.9% +1600 +2.1% 2.0%
Ricky Turcios KO/TKO Alberto Montes KO/TKO 12% +733 10% +900 +2% 2.0%
Max Holloway SUB Charles Oliveira SUB 9% +1011 7.7% +1200 +1.3% 1.0%
Ricky Turcios Alberto Montes ML 40% +150 39.2% +155 +0.8% 1.0%
Diyar Nurgozhay SUB Rafael Tobias SUB 8% +1150 7.1% +1300 +0.9% 1.0%
Gaston Bolanos SUB JeongYeong Lee SUB 4% +2400 3.3% +2900 +0.7% 1.0%
Edge = AI% − Implied% · Kelly = recommended bankroll fraction · Only positive-edge bets shown

🎰 Top Parlays

2-Leg Parlays
Johnson
-625
80%
Fernandez
-245
71%
Holloway
-230
69%
Nurgozhay
+170
69%
Borralho
-286
65%
Johnson
-625
80%
-158
56.8%
$63
-151
55.2%
$66
+213
55.2%
$213
K34.0%
-177
52%
$57
Fernandez
-245
71%
-158
56.8%
$63
+102
49%
$102
+280
49%
$280
K31.0%
-111
46.2%
$90
Holloway
-230
69%
-151
55.2%
$66
+102
49%
$102
+287
47.6%
$287
K29.0%
-107
44.8%
$94
Nurgozhay
+170
69%
+213
55.2%
$213
K34.0%
+280
49%
$280
K31.0%
+287
47.6%
$287
K29.0%
+264
44.8%
$264
K24.0%
Borralho
-286
65%
-177
52%
$57
-111
46.2%
$90
-107
44.8%
$94
+264
44.8%
$264
K24.0%
Stacked Parlays
2-Leg Johnson + Fernandez
Odds: -158
Win%: 56.8%
Payout: $63
0.8 × 0.71 = 56.8%
3-Leg Johnson + Fernandez + Holloway
Odds: +134
Win%: 39.2%
Payout: $134
0.8 × 0.71 × 0.69 = 39.2%
4-Leg Johnson + Fernandez + Holloway + Nurgozhay
Odds: +533
Win%: 27%
Payout: $533
Kelly: 13.0%
0.8 × 0.71 × 0.69 × 0.69 = 27%
5-Leg Johnson + Fernandez + Holloway + Nurgozhay + Borralho
Odds: +754
Win%: 17.6%
Payout: $754
Kelly: 7.0%
0.8 × 0.71 × 0.69 × 0.69 × 0.65 = 17.6%
🤖 69%  ·  -230 70%
◆ Consensus
VS
Lightweight
36% +180  ·  🤖 31%
Details
69% 31%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Max Holloway 69% win DEC 32% SGP 22% ★ Max Holloway DEC 32%
Max Holloway Charles Oliveira
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
-223 -230 70% 69% Win 31% 36% +180 +223
+270 +150 40% 27% KO/TKO 7% 10% +900 +1329
0.01 +1011 +1200 8% 9% SUB 14% 22% +360 +614
0.06 +213 +260 28% 32% DEC 10% 8% +1100 +900 0.02
0.03 +355 +417 19% 22% SGP 4% 8% +1188 +2400
+138 42% GTD 42% +138
-138 58% ITD 58% -138
🤖 65%  ·  -286 74%
◆ Consensus
VS
Middleweight
31% +220  ·  🤖 35%
Details
65% 35%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Caio Borralho 65% win DEC 47% SGP 31% ★ Reinier de Ridder KO/TKO 15%
Caio Borralho Reinier de Ridder
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
-186 -286 74% 65% Win 35% 31% +220 +186 0.05
+567 +335 23% 15% KO/TKO 15% 8% +1150 +567 0.08
+2400 +700 13% 4% SUB 5% 9% +1000 +1900
0.04 +113 +123 45% 47% DEC 15% 19% +420 +567
+223 +201 33% 31% SGP 5% 3% +3900 +1900 0.03
-163 62% GTD 62% -163
+163 38% ITD 38% +163
🤖 54%  ·  +180 36%
🏼 Live Dog
VS
Bantamweight
70% -230  ·  🤖 46%
Details
54% 46%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Rob Font 54% win DEC 19% SGP 10% ★ Rob Font 54%
Rob Font Raul Rosas Jr.
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
0.28 -117 +180 36% 54% Win 46% 70% -230 +117
0.04 +456 +600 14% 18% KO/TKO 8% 10% +900 +1150
0.13 +525 +2500 4% 16% SUB 19% 21% +380 +426
+426 +325 24% 19% DEC 20% 46% +120 +400
0.02 +900 +1090 8% 10% SGP 9% 32% +216 +1011
+156 39% GTD 39% +156
-156 61% ITD 61% -156
🤖 39%  ·  +100 50%
VS
Lightweight
55% -122  ·  🤖 61%
▲ Fair Value ◆ Consensus
Details
39% 61%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Michael Johnson 61% win DEC 33% SGP 20% ★ Michael Johnson 61%
Drew Dober Michael Johnson
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
+156 +100 50% 39% Win 61% 55% -122 -156 0.13
+900 +175 36% 10% KO/TKO 24% 30% +230 +317
+3233 +2200 4% 3% SUB 4% 4% +2400 +2400
0.12 +300 +575 15% 25% DEC 33% 26% +290 +203 0.10
0.03 +900 +1250 7% 10% SGP 20% 14% +610 +400 0.07
-138 58% GTD 58% -138
+138 42% ITD 42% +138
🤖 60%  ·  -205 67%
◆ Consensus
VS
Middleweight
38% +163  ·  🤖 40%
Details
60% 40%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Gregory Rodrigues 60% win DEC 41% SGP 25% ★ Gregory Rodrigues DEC 41%
Gregory Rodrigues Brunno Ferreira
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
-150 -205 67% 60% Win 40% 38% +163 +150 0.03
+567 +163 38% 15% KO/TKO 12% 26% +280 +733
+2400 +420 19% 4% SUB 8% 6% +1600 +1150 0.02
0.30 +144 +550 15% 41% DEC 21% 11% +850 +376 0.12
0.16 +300 +867 10% 25% SGP 8% 4% +2399 +1150 0.04
-163 62% GTD 62% -163
+163 38% ITD 38% +163
VS
Bantamweight
Details
30% 70%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Xiao Long 70% win DEC 44% SGP 31% ★ Cody Garbrandt SGP 25%
Cody Garbrandt Xiao Long
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
+233 30% Win 70% -233
+669 13% KO/TKO 19% +426
+4900 2% SUB 7% +1329
+567 15% DEC 44% +127
+1900 5% SGP 31% +223
-144 59% GTD 59% -144
+144 41% ITD 41% +144
🤖 80%  ·  -625 86%
◆ Consensus
VS
Middleweight
18% +460  ·  🤖 20%
Details
80% 20%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Donte Johnson 80% win SUB 41% SGP 33% ★ Donte Johnson SUB 41%
Donte Johnson Cody Brundage
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
-400 -625 86% 80% Win 20% 18% +460 +400 0.03
+488 -165 62% 17% KO/TKO 7% 9% +1000 +1329
0.29 +144 +510 16% 41% SUB 3% 7% +1400 +3233
0.09 +376 +650 13% 21% DEC 10% 7% +1300 +900 0.03
0.22 +203 +608 14% 33% SGP 2% 1% +7740 +4900 0.01
+223 31% GTD 31% +223
-223 69% ITD 69% -223
🤖 40%  ·  +155 39%
VS
Featherweight
66% -195  ·  🤖 60%
◆ Consensus
Details
40% 60%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Alberto Montes 60% win KO/TKO 22% SGP 13% ★ Ricky Turcios SGP 33%
Ricky Turcios Alberto Montes
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
0.01 +150 +155 39% 40% Win 60% 66% -195 -150
0.02 +733 +900 10% 12% KO/TKO 22% 13% +700 +355 0.11
+1900 +900 10% 5% SUB 22% 26% +285 +355
+335 +325 24% 23% DEC 17% 33% +200 +488
+1011 +984 9% 9% SGP 13% 8% +1110 +669 0.05
+150 40% GTD 40% +150
-150 60% ITD 60% -150
🤖 43%  ·  +116 46%
VS
Flyweight
59% -143  ·  🤖 57%
◆ Consensus
Details
43% 57%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 57% win SUB 27% SGP 15% ★ Nyamjargal Tumendemberel SUB 27%
Cody Durden Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
+133 +116 46% 43% Win 57% 59% -143 -133
0.03 +525 +650 13% 16% KO/TKO 11% 22% +360 +809
+1567 +420 19% 6% SUB 27% 20% +400 +270 0.09
0.03 +376 +430 19% 21% DEC 19% 22% +350 +426
0.00 +1011 +1045 9% 9% SGP 15% 12% +750 +567 0.04
+150 40% GTD 40% +150
-150 60% ITD 60% -150
VS
Flyweight
Details
66% 34%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Sumudaerji 66% win DEC 45% SGP 30% ★ Jesus Aguilar SGP 15%
Sumudaerji Jesus Aguilar
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
-194 66% Win 34% +194
+488 17% KO/TKO 4% +2400
+1900 5% SUB 8% +1150
+122 45% DEC 22% +355
+233 30% SGP 7% +1329
-203 67% GTD 67% -203
+203 33% ITD 33% +203
🤖 31%  ·  -220 69%
VS
Light Heavyweight
37% +170  ·  🤖 69%
🏼 Live Dog
Details
31% 69%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Diyar Nurgozhay 69% win KO/TKO 47% SGP 32% ★ Diyar Nurgozhay 69%
Rafael Tobias Diyar Nurgozhay
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
+223 -220 69% 31% Win 69% 37% +170 -223 0.51
+360 22% KO/TKO 47% 23% +340 +113 0.31
+488 +185 35% 17% SUB 8% 7% +1300 +1150 0.01
+614 +525 16% 14% DEC 14% 11% +850 +614 0.04
+1900 +315 24% 5% SGP 32% 8% +1088 +213 0.26
+257 28% GTD 28% +257
-257 72% ITD 72% -257
🤖 40%  ·  -295 75%
VS
Featherweight
31% +225  ·  🤖 60%
🏼 Live Dog
Details
40% 60%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Gaston Bolanos 60% win DEC 35% SGP 21% ★ Gaston Bolanos 60%
JeongYeong Lee Gaston Bolanos
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
+150 -295 75% 40% Win 60% 31% +225 -150 0.42
+733 +215 32% 12% KO/TKO 21% 16% +525 +376 0.06
+614 +400 20% 14% SUB 4% 3% +2900 +2400 0.01
+614 +255 28% 14% DEC 35% 16% +525 +186 0.23
+1567 +570 15% 6% SGP 21% 5% +1931 +376 0.17
+104 49% GTD 49% +104
-104 51% ITD 51% -104
🤖 71%  ·  -245 71%
◆ Consensus
VS
Light Heavyweight
35% +190  ·  🤖 29%
Details
71% 29%
🤖 AI Prediction
Pick: Luke Fernandez 71% win DEC 40% SGP 28% ★ Luke Fernandez DEC 40%
Luke Fernandez Rodolfo Bellato
Kelly Fair Odds Imp% AI% AI% Imp% Odds Fair Kelly
-245 -245 71% 71% Win 29% 35% +190 +245
+285 -118 54% 26% KO/TKO 13% 15% +550 +669
+2400 +1500 6% 4% SUB 16% 13% +700 +525 0.04
0.29 +150 +525 16% 40% DEC 11% +800
0.19 +257 +780 11% 28% SGP 5% 4% +2220 +1900 0.01
+150 40% GTD 40% +150
-150 60% ITD 60% -150

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